moody's probability of default table 2021

This does not necessarily indicate a default event, but during the period of regulatory supervision, the regulators may have the power to favor one class of obligations over others or pay some obligations and not others. Also, there had been a lack of progress on Sichuan Languang's project disposal plan. Given this, the short-term refinancing risks for the company had ceased, as it wouldn't have large maturities till 2026.

The average number of notches for an upgrade dipped to 1.12 in 2021 from 1.19 in 2020, while downgrades reached an average of 1.44 notches--only a fractional difference from 1.46 notches in 2020 (see chart 10). On March 26, 2021, S&P Global Ratings lowered its long-term issuer credit rating on U.K.-based (Singapore-headquartered) aircraft lessor Avation PLC to 'SD' from 'CC' after the company completed the restructuring of its US$342.6 million senior notes due May 2021 with 100% consent from bondholders. (7), Grenada The grace periods for payments had also lapsed. Then, at the prompt, dial 866-330-MDYS (866-330-6397)

(6), Burkina Faso The analysis excludes public information (pi) ratings and ratings based on the guarantee of another company or government entity. (2), Bolivia (1), Maryland Amid the fall in the default rate in 2021 (see chart 23), risk tolerance among lenders remained near the post-financial-crisis high. In 2021, S&P Global Ratings' corporate issuer credit ratings performed very well globally, with all rated defaulters beginning the year in the 'B' category or lower.

(865), Sub-Sovereign The trailing-12-month and annual default rates have become standard measures, but default rates measured over shorter time frames give a more immediate picture of credit market conditions. We also list the defaulting instruments that S&P Global Ratings rates for each company. The issuer announced a follow-up offer seeking another US$30 million at a 45%-50% discount to par. On May 12, 2021, we raised the long-term issuer credit rating to 'CCC-' from 'SD' after the issuer's liquidity position improved. On March 1, 2021, we raised our issuer credit ratings on YPF to 'CCC+' from 'SD' following the exchange of a large portion of its foreign currency debt, which extended debt maturities and reduced interest and debt payments through 2023. (2), Cayman Islands (6), Ivory Coast (2), Turks and Caicos Islands On Nov. 17, 2021, we lowered our issuer credit rating on Riverbed to 'D' from 'CC' after the company and its subsidiaries filed voluntary petitions under Chapter 11 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code. The company also announced the suspension of dividends on its outstanding preferred stock. Fitch Ratings-New York-31 March 2021: Fitch Ratings has released its global transition and default performance data through 2020.

Other sectors, such as consumer services, have had more frequent default cycles, both during and between economic cycles. As in most recovery periods, defaults fell relative to the prior year, with the S&P Global Ratings global speculative-grade corporate default rate falling below 2% for only the eighth time in the past 41 .

(2), Vanuatu Moody's CreditView is our flagship solution for global capital markets that incorporates credit ratings, research and data from Moody's Investors Service plus research, data and content from Moody's Analytics. (1), US Late Credit Cycle Risks Speculative-grade-rated issuers account for more than 60% of total issuers in eight of the 13 industries we track. The rating action followed the company's missed interest payment on its outstanding debt due July 30, 2021. On March 16, 2021, S&P Global Ratings lowered its long-term issuer credit rating on Colorado-based oil and gas exploration and production company HighPoint Resources Corp. to 'D' from 'CC' following the company's filing of voluntary petitions under Chapter 11 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code. Difference between last four quarters and weighted average, Largest corporate defaulters by outstanding debt amount, Texas Competitive Electric Holdings Co. LLC.

This report does not constitute a rating action. (2), Sao Tome and Principe The outlook was stable, reflecting more balanced cash flow and normalizing business conditions.

These default rates are the same that appear in table 24 and are average cumulative default rates conditional on survival.

However, the baseline trailing 12month - default rate is projected to fall below 4% by the end of 2021. N.A.--Not available. *Initial ratings for these companies are those immediately following a prior default in 2021. Credit conditions in the euro area remained resilient in Q4 2022 but will deteriorate sharply in the current quarter, according to our new indicator.

The date S&P Global Ratings revised the rating(s) to 'D', 'SD', or 'R'; The date a distressed exchange offer was announced; or. On Nov. 11, 2021, S&P Global Ratings lowered its long-term issuer credit rating on Brazil-based transportation infrastructure group Investimentos e Participacoes em Infraestrutura S.A. - Invepar to 'D' from 'CC'. With this transaction, the issuer amended terms of its first-lien term loan and converted a 1.5-lien loan into preferred shares. (195), Insurance Investment-grade defaulters. The stable outlook reflected favorable market conditions, namely elevated iron ore prices that would translate into healthy profitability and limit cash burn in the coming 12-18 months. *Or Dec. 31, 1980, whichever is later. Otherwise, the methodology was identical to that used for single-year transitions. SUMMARY REPORTS Reports FILTER BY Type Sector Region Date Range SYNOPSIS 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Next The exchange was considered distressed because the preferred holders would get less than what was promised. In line with expectations, the majority of companies that defaulted within one year of the original rating are from the lowest speculative-grade rating categories, 'B' and lower.

The issuer has limited access to financial and capital markets, given tax claims from Mexico's Servicio de Administracin Tributaria. However, this poses no continuity problem because each study reports statistics back to Dec. 31, 1980. (6), Croatia Higher ratings show a negative correspondence with the observed frequency of default. Therefore, if an issuer has rated debt but not an issuer credit rating, we assign a proxy rating so that the CreditPro corporate dataset accurately represents the complete universe of ratings. Default, Transition, and Recovery: 2021 Annual Global Corporate Default And Rating Transition Study, Credit Trends: U.S. Corporate Bond Yields As Of May 31, 2023, This Month In Credit: 2023 Data Companion, Default, Transition, and Recovery: 2022 Annual Global Leveraged Loan CLO Default And Rating Transition Study, Default, Transition, and Recovery: The U.S.

The four major regions covered in this study are the U.S., Europe, other developed markets, and emerging and frontier markets. Other methods may calculate default rates using only the most recent year's default and rating data, which may yield comparatively low default rates during periods of high rating activity because they ignore prior years' default activity.

Likewise, it would be included in the 1989 and 1990 pools with the 'B' rating. This issuer has far more debt outstanding that we do not rate (see table 5).

Distribuidora Internacional de Alimentacion S.A.

About 98.5% of its bondholders approved this transaction. (2), Honduras

We viewed the transaction as distressed and tantamount to default because the second-lien lenders received less than the original promise of the debt instrument and because without the restructuring, the group would likely have faced liquidity pressure over the medium term. (1), Vermont On April 28, 2021, S&P Global Ratings lowered its issuer credit rating on India-based fashion and household products retailer Future Retail Ltd. to 'SD' from 'CCC-', after the issuer completed a one-time restructuring of its onshore debt of about Indian rupee (INR) 102 billion.

S&P Global Ratings Research conducts its default studies on the basis of groupings called static pools. S&P and any third-party providers, as well as their directors, officers, shareholders, employees, or agents (collectively S&P Parties) do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, timeliness, or availability of the Content. (1), Michigan (2), Netherlands (191), Rating Transition Studies

Speculative-grade issuers have reached a majority before--the first instance in September 2018--but the ratio has largely hovered around 50% since then. (6), Slovenia On April 15, 2021, we raised our issuer credit rating on the company to 'CCC+' from 'SD'. For example, 10 companies rated 'A' at any point in their lifetimes (excluding initial ratings) defaulted within one year of receiving this rating. The company announced an exchange offer for its senior secured term loans and secured notes. Transition matrices that present averages over multiple time horizons are also calculated as issuer-weighted averages. (61), Debt Sustainability We included such subsidiaries for the period during which they had a distinct and separate risk of default.

(2), Taiwan, China

(2), Norfolk Island Others are withdrawn because of a lack of cooperation, particularly when a company is experiencing financial difficulties and refuses to provide all the information needed to continue surveillance on the ratings, or at the entity's request. In April 2021, Bonanza Creek Energy Inc. completed its previously announced $376 million merger with HighPoint Resources Corp. On April 22, 2021, we withdrew our ratings on the company.

(2), Senegal

(2), Samoa The issuer primarily caters to the oil and gas and petrochemicals sector, which accounted for about 79% of 2019 sales.

The company entered into an agreement with its ad hoc committee, formed by a majority of its noteholders, to pursue a debt restructuring. This included about US$348 million of senior secured notes, US$354 million of term loan debt, and US$94 million of senior unsecured notes. (2), Saint Lucia Investment-grade-rated issuers globally tend to exhibit greater ratings stability (as measured by the frequency of rating transitions) than those rated speculative-grade (see table 20). US Corporate Default Monitor: Defaults will accelerate in 2023 after doubling in Q4. The lone large downgrade was for a confidentially rated financial institution from Europe, which fell to 'D' directly from 'B+'. For example, three-year transition matrices were the result of comparing ratings at the beginning of the years 1981-2019 with the ratings at the end of the years 1983-2021. Following a year marked by one of the deepest recessions in the past 100 years, 2021 proved to be a year of better-than-expected economic recovery, despite the lingering COVID-19 pandemic. It does not apply to any specific financial obligation because it does not take into account the nature and provisions of any single obligation, its standing in bankruptcy or liquidation, statutory preferences, or the legality and enforceability of the obligation.

The financial sponsors of the company agreed to contribute US$25 million for its liquidity.

This small sample size can, at times, result in historical default rates that seem counterintuitive, such as a higher cumulative default rate for 'AAA' rated companies than for 'AA+' rated companies. [4]Average One-to-Five-YearCorporate RatingMigrationRates,1970.

We also do not include short-term issuer credit ratings. (1), Kentucky The company operates as a crude oil transportation system connecting the STACK, Mississippi Lime, and Granite Wash plays to Cushing, Oklahoma. Credit-related and other analyses, including ratings, and statements in the Content are statements of opinion as of the date they are expressed and not statements of fact.

As the default rate fell globally, credit quality also showed a net improvement in 2021, with more companies upgraded than downgraded.

(7), Vietnam

For the Gini ratios in tables 2, 27, and 28, the standard deviations are derived from the time series of Gini ratios for all of their constituent annual cohorts. Earlier, on Nov. 12, 2021, we lowered our long-term issuer credit rating on the company to 'CC' from 'CCC' after it missed a coupon payment on the US$222 million outstanding sukuk due May 2022. Investment-grade-rated issuers seldom default, so the number of defaults among these rating categories is particularly low.

(1), New York

(58), North America Characteristic of an economic recovery year, most defaults were concentrated at the lowest ratings (see chart 3). (6), Turkmenistan

As coincident indicators, the proportion of new speculative-grade ratings at 'B-' or lower in the U.S. and the year-end U.S. speculative-grade default rate generally mirror each other throughout most of their shared history (see chart 19). The nonfinancial sector tends to have a much higher share of companies rated speculative-grade, with 61.4% globally as of the beginning of 2021, compared with just 24.5% of financial services companies.

The company's management did not provide a new repayment timeline on this selective default after it failed to raise necessary funds, as originally planned. (1), The Big Picture

The use of the term "methodology" in this article refers to data aggregation and calculation methods used in conducting the research. Each static pool is followed from that point forward. The data is updated monthly and spans from 1970 to present, with select data going back to 1920. For example, leisure and media has a much higher proportion of speculative-grade ratings than financial institutions or insurance (see chart 22). *The Netherlands Antilles was dissolved in 2010. These compare with a Gini of 86.1% and a default rate of 5.5% in 2020. (358), Africa: Emergence and transformation On July 12, 2021, S&P Global Ratings lowered its issuer credit rating on Peabody Energy Corp. to 'SD' from 'CCC' after the announcement of a tender offer to purchase up to US$13.281 million of its 8.5% senior secured notes due 2024 and a letter-of-credit revolving facility due 2024 at a discount to par. The issuer planned to restructure its US$267 million of debt through transactions that would help the company to sustain through the economic downturn brought on by COVID-19 and emerge from bankruptcy. (1), Montana

But over the past three years--now that more than a decade has passed since the financial crisis of 2008-2009--financial services defaulters show a median rating in the 'B' category five years prior to default. In a small number of cases, we use the subordinated debt rating or the senior secured rating as the proxy. (2), Peru Aswath Damodaran! Because static pools include only entities with active ratings as of the beginning date of a given pool, we exclude companies with withdrawn ratings, as well as those that have defaulted, from subsequent static pools. On Dec. 17, 2021, we raised our issuer credit rating on Exela Technologies Inc. to 'CCC-' from 'SD' following some exchange transactions.

Later, on, Sept. 23, 2021, we raised the long-term issuer credit rating to 'B-' from 'D' after the company equitized approximately US$796 million of debt, which was substantially all of its capital structure. Each one-year transition matrix displays all rating movements between letter categories from the beginning of the year through year-end. (275), Uruguay Numbers in parentheses are standard deviations. As a supplement to many of the averages and time series presented in this study, standard deviations are also shown to provide a gauge of the dispersion of data behind these averages. (2), South Africa

Defaulted issuers initially rated 'BB' show a similar pattern but peak at a lower rate and over a more drawn-out period, from three to five years after origination. Over the long term, the global weighted average Gini coefficient (a measure of the rank-ordering power of ratings over a given time horizon) was 82.6% over the one-year horizon, 75.4% over three years, 71.6% over five years, and 69.1% over seven years (see table 27). Through Dec. 31, 2021, 60 defaults came from the 2021 pool of rated financial and nonfinancial companies, and all of these were from the lowest rating categories--'B' and lower.

Initial ratings, or those as of Dec. 31, 1980. Ratings stability increased in 2021 to 75.1%, largely as a result of the low downgrade and default rates of 5.5% and 0.84%, respectively. (2), Congo, Republic of (ROC) An obligor is considered in default unless S&P Global Ratings believes that such payments will be made within five business days of the due date in the absence of a stated grace period, or within the earlier of the stated grace period or 30 calendar days.

That is, when default pressure is high, economic conditions are such that the likelihood of companies from across the rating spectrum suffering a more rapid deterioration of credit quality is higher.

Among the three defaulters initially rated investment-grade, the average time to default--the time between first rating and date of default--was 14 years, with an associated standard deviation of 10.3 years. In this case, however, the 'AA+' figure was derived from a much smaller sample than that for the 'AA' rating. S&P assumes no obligation to update the Content following publication in any form or format. (2), Argentina

The company was still in talks with its creditors for waivers for selling its infrastructure division for US$2.15 billion. S&P Parties disclaim any duty whatsoever arising out of the assignment, withdrawal, or suspension of an acknowledgment as well as any liability for any damage alleged to have been suffered on account thereof. (6), Papua New Guinea

With the region moving to promote disintermediation, this share of speculative-grade issuers could continue to grow.

One-year Gini coefficients appear to be broadly cyclical and negatively correlated with default rates (see chart 32). (100), Other Studies On Jan. 6, 2021, S&P Global Ratings lowered its long-term issuer credit rating on Spain-based print and audiovisual media operator Promotora de Informaciones S.A. to 'SD' from 'CC', following the company's announcement that it would amend its loans and issue about 110 million of supersenior debt. For both broad categories over the past three years, all of these defaulters were rated in the lowest rating categories several years ahead of their eventual default. The squared difference between each cohort's transition rate and the weighted average--which is the data point in each cell--is multiplied by each cohort's weight.

We saw the debt restructuring as a distressed exchange considering Invepar's fragile financial situation and the fact the group was not honoring the original promise of its debt by paying the creditors in kind while creditors were receiving less value with the lower interest rate. The company failed to cure its US$7 million missed coupon payment on its outstanding US$222 million senior unsecured sukuk (Islamic bond) due May 2022, which constituted an event of default. Broadly speaking, the average and median times to default for each rating category are longer when based on the initial rating than when based on subsequent ratings, particularly for speculative-grade ratings.

(2), Somalia (3), The Credit Cycle Turns (1480), Latin America & Caribbean For additional details on the 2021 defaulters, see Appendix III. The company entered into a forbearance agreement with its lenders on June 21 to defer its interest payment due June 15, 2021. On Aug. 10, 2021, we raised our issuer credit rating on Comdata SpA to 'CCC+' from 'SD' after the completion of the debt restructuring. These are calculated in the same way as the default column in table 20, though table 20 shows the one-year default rates for each rating category for 2021 exclusively. (2), Bangladesh For example, 'AA+' rated issuers were still rated 'AA+' one year later 79.7% of the time, and 'AA' rated issuers were still rated 'AA' one year later 81% of the time. At times, however, some of these subsidiaries might not yet have been covered by a parent's guarantee, or the relationship that combines the default risk of parent and subsidiary might have come to an end or might not have begun. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro.

In contrast, the issuer with the shortest time to default (18 days) was a confidentially rated Cayman Islands-based homebuilder/real estate company. Entities that have had ratings withdrawn--that is, revised to not rated (NR)--are surveilled with the aim of capturing a potential default.

Section 4 contains the methodology applied to der ive the mapping of Moody 's main ratings scale whereas Section 5 refers to the mapping of term rating scalethe short. (7), Belize

(1), South Carolina (59), Micronesia Ratings Aerospace/automotive/capital goods/metals, Forest and building products/homebuilders. (2), Kyrgyzstan (6), Puerto Rico

We viewed the debt restructuring as a distressed exchange. The proceeds of the transaction would go toward the repayment of the company's debt obligations, namely its 5.50% senior unsecured notes and revolving credit facility, both maturing in 2022. With the decline, the total amount of affected debt also fell, to $66.3 billion, from $353.4 billion in 2020 (see chart 8). (6), Isle of Man We calculated average transition matrices on the basis of the multiyear matrices just described. (76), North Korea (2), Saint Kitts and Nevis Historically, a growing concentration of speculative-grade ratings often precedes a period of increased defaults.

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One-Year transition matrix displays all rating movements between letter categories from the beginning of the company announced an exchange for.

The rating reflected the company's unsustainable leverage, with debt to EBITDA of more than 8x in 2021.

The company was still in talks with its shareholders for some strategic alternatives. Earlier, on Sept. 29, 2021, we lowered our long-term issuer credit rating on Fantasia Holdings Group Co. Ltd. to 'CCC' from 'B', reflecting substantial risk of nonrepayment of the company's debt obligations totaling US$760 million over the next six months.

(6), India Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro.